Turkey Facing Its Future Analysis and Perspectives of Constitutional Referendum

...this Dossier can be a good tool for those who would like to have ideas and prospects about this delicate political phase of Turkish history. At least until next presidential elections in 2019. "It is a widespread opinion that even if Erdogan should have success in imposing the presidential model he desires, it is not clear he will be able to maintain over the medium term. In this moment, the Turkish government is in great difficulty in the region with all its neighbours [...]. The Kurds are gaining territory in Syria and relations with the European Union and the United States are not among the best. [...] Inside his party, Erdogan still has a certain following, but if he should continue to concentrate power in his own hands, the possibility of dissent with other members is not to be excluded. [...] The analyses are agreed by now on the fact that a lot of dissent exists. Nevertheless, determining if the phenomenon can be relegated to a simple tendency to protest, [...] or the beginning of a real decline in power, is not yet possible to establish." Maurizio Scaini University of Trieste