The Geriatric Peace: Population Aging and the Decline of War

"This chapter explores the causes of population aging (diminishing fertility levels and rising life expectancies) and why it is inevitable in most countries. It then discusses the book's four main hypotheses. Advanced stages of population aging will significantly reduce states' capacity (or military capabilities) to war while increasing leaders' and citizens' preferences for peace (Hypothesis 1). Because of aging's impact on capabilities and preferences, demographically old countries will be less likely to initiate wars than will younger ones (Hypothesis 2). If an aged country does initiate war, the effects of aging will create major barriers to military success (Hypothesis 3). Finally, the effects of population aging will help prevent a power transition between the United States and China (Hypothesis 4). Although the United States confronts major challenges created by its aging population, it is significantly better shape in this area than is China. Population aging, as a result, will be a potent force for the continuation of US relative power dominance. The chapter concludes with analyses of: the book's contributions to the literature, counterarguments and their problems, operationalization of variables, and case selection criteria"-- Provided by publisher.